Recently, the state-owned bank consulted to amend the draft to replace Circular 36/2014/TT-NHNN, stipulating that loans for buying houses and houses with 3 billion dong or more will apply risk factors. up to 150% (tightening home loans to buy over 3 billion VND).
This information has immediately received mixed opinions of experts and businesses in the field of economy and real estate. Following are the views of experts and businesses around the story that are quite "hot" in the current real estate market.
Economist Vo Tri Thanh: "In the short term, businesses will face difficulties but will be good in the long term"
All economic crises are not forecasted exactly at the time but there is a point that at some point it will certainly happen and start from the financial crisis.
Want to know the real estate market to develop healthy or not, we have to look at real estate finance. When negative impacts on the real estate market lead to bursting of bubbles, the first sign will appear in the places where cash flows are pouring into the strongest. Therefore, the real estate crisis is associated with the financial crisis.
Do not rush to conclude that tightening credit on real estate will negatively impact the market. This is an incorrect point of view when monetary policy can ensure a healthier market. If there is no strict control leading to bubble burst, then the whole economy will be affected. Therefore, the State Bank's tightening of credit may temporarily affect real estate businesses but in the long run will stabilize the market. Currently, the bank is trying to combine credit measures to suit the real estate market, help the market develop and limit risks.
Ms. Nguyen Thi Thanh Huong, General Director of Dai Phuc Land: “It is not a good solution because it is not based on the story of supply and demand of the market. I find that tightening credit into real estate of VND 3 billion or more is not stable and is not a good solution at the current stage".
The reason, in 2018, the real estate market developed relatively evenly among the segments, there was no alarming phase difference between the three segments, which were intermediate, high-end or luxury. In particular, high-end and luxury segments account for about 30% of the market supply, other segments are approximately the same.
Meanwhile, the demand of the market is still quite stable. The development of the high-end or luxury segment also depends on the project location factors, the real needs of customers. That is, each segment has different customer needs, so if it is separated from credit in such a price segment, it will "keep the will" and intervene too deeply in the market's supply - demand, not match. in accordance with market rules.
Real estate is the field where all other careers are followed. Therefore, a decision will affect the chain, not only the real estate sector. So, I think we should consider carefully the story of credit tightening for the real estate segment of 3 billion or more. A decision needs to be cautious and long-term vision to the market and based on the story of supply and demand of the real estate market.
Currently, the supply and demand of the real estate market is still at a stable level, so it is best to make the market reality decide instead of rushing to make a policy that can have the opposite effect. At this stage, this is not a good solution.
Mr. Nguyen Tran Nam, Nguyen Deputy Minister of Construction: "Banks should not tighten too much or limit credit."
If the real estate market develops, banks will also benefit greatly. Therefore, banks should not tighten or restrict credit to real estate.
Currently, policies to reduce the rate of short-term capital use for medium and long-term loans are reduced from 60% to 40%, dilated in 2 years. Recently, information will be reduced to 30% in the near future and more tightening credit for home loans 3 billion or more. The explanation of the state bank is that 3 billion dong is buying low-income houses so it does not affect the poor but what the bank does is to prohibit rich people from buying houses when they can afford to pay debts. If people borrow more than 3 billion dong but they are able to repay, why not lend?
The problem here is that the bank must strictly control whether the borrower is able to repay the loan or not to stipulate the segment of lending or not. Loans for home loans should not be restricted but should be limited to land loans because most people who buy land are "soaked" for surfing. In the case of not being able to surf and run aground, the foundation land does not have liquidity, fragile bubbles, borrowers cannot pay debts, and risks for new banks are high.
Mr. Ngo Quang Phuc, General Director of Phu Dong Group: "Do not solve the problem of market problems"
The real estate credit tightening does not solve the target cause. The reason is not the problem that he tightens how much credit to real estate but lies in the story of real market demand.
When tightening intangible credit, people who need to buy houses are affected, especially those who buy real houses and buy houses for the first time. According to the policy, the State Bank tightened credit of 3 billion or more is also the support for real estate segments and buyers meet real demand. But, I have to think about the story, the person with 3 billion is not without demand to buy in real. If they are rich, they buy a high segment, why do they buy them low, that is unfair to them.
In fact, the roadmap to tighten credit into real estate is not immediately shocking but will gradually infiltrate to the real estate market. In particular, with the recent draft opinion in the direction of tightening credit with VND 3 billion or more real estate, it is certain that the high-value product segment will be affected. For investors, speculation in this segment will falter. Thus, meaning that the number of buyers will be limited, the amount of demand paying attention to that real estate of the business will decrease, the investor itself will affect.
But once the project is not sold, the investor does not have money to continue implementing other projects, making the supply of real estate market more gloomy. Accordingly, there are a series of uncertainties related to the supply story such as increase in price, deviation of supply and demand, even freezing.
Credit is tightened but it must have a reasonable selection. Loans should be encouraged for projects that investors meet real demand in the market. Selecting in the lending process, classifying each project and business clearly. For example, in the general regulations, there are additional regulations, accompanied by real estate that meets the real needs, so it is encourage to increase supply and "leave land" for customers who want to buy real land.
In my opinion, the regulation of tightening credit has not reached the target, it can cause adverse effects if not carefully. For example, the rich have money, they go to buy all the affordable projects, collect goods to push the price up unintentionally create a shortage of supply, while demand is high, prices rise more blameless.
Mr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, a financial and banking expert: “Difficult for both businesses and home buyers”
The tightening of the ratio of short-term capital for medium and long-term loans and the increase in the risk factor in real estate business loans will affect credit capital into this market in 2019. With the current situation of mobilized funds into banking sector is mainly short-term, if medium, long-term loans with high rates will lead to liquidity risks. Therefore, difficulties are difficult to avoid, not only with loans for real estate business but also for home loans, as banks have to adjust short-term capital for medium and long-term loans.
Current loan for home loans is mainly medium, long term, 5-15 years, even lending banks for up to 20 years. Therefore, the above rate gradually tightened, forcing banks to strengthen long-term mobilization to restructure capital. In fact, with risk-averse psychology, depositors mainly want to send short-term. In order to attract long-term deposits, savings interest rates must increase, which will lead to an increase in mortgage interest.
Mr. Nguyen Thai Huy, Deputy General Director of Yeshouse Joint Stock Company: "People will find it difficult to buy houses due to reduced supply and high prices".
According to the new draft opinion replacing the Circular 36 of the state bank, the credit tightening for real estate from 3 billion dong or more will make it difficult for businesses and buyers in high price segments. In particular, people find it difficult to buy houses due to a decrease in supply in the market and high prices. The risk of slowing down the high price segment in the market is easy to see. At the same time, it also has significant impacts on the sectors related to housing construction.
However, at the present time, this draft is also a way to control and purify the real estate market. Accordingly, in order to stand firm in the market, real estate businesses must mobilize to the utmost financial potential, product competitiveness and transparency in corporate governance. In other words, businesses must really have financial, product and human resources to achieve business performance in the long term, ensuring the ability to pay later with the bank.
In terms of product competitiveness, real estate enterprises must be able to develop projects in accordance with the demand and absorption capacity of the market. Projects must have a favorable position (ensuring modern utility infrastructure but also close to nature, ecology), high liquidity, abundant use purposes to meet the increasing demands of customers.
To solve the problem of supply in a diverse market and in the long run, real estate businesses themselves need to change their direction. Finding markets around Ho Chi Minh City to develop business strategies, soft and flexible products, the demand for diversity is also an effective solution.
Mr. Le Xuan Nghia, former vice chairman of the National Financial Supervision Committee: "The bank should not control so harshly."
Currently, the real estate market is still stable, no signs of "bubbles". Demand for real estate is still growing at a normal level, at least from now until 2021 there are no signs of "collapse".
Therefore, credit should not be controlled strictly on real estate instead of controlling total credit in general. From 2021 to 2023 will be a sensitive period of the real estate market and financial market. In the near future, there will be a huge shift of capital flows from the stock market to the real estate market. This shift can start from 2019 and quickly can last until 2021, and slowly, until 2023.
According to Tri thuc tre