There are no bubbles or price increases on a large scale, but according to experts, the shortage of products may cause the price of some projects in Hanoi locally.
Mr. Pham Duc Toan, General Director of EZ Real Estate Joint Stock Company, said that in the first half of last year, his floor sold about 10 projects, but this year only stopped at 4 projects. Moreover, the projects that EZ is participating in are mainly in stock, not newly launched. However, he said, many other rival units are in a similar situation due to the scarcity of new projects.
"Real estate transaction is not interested in inventory consumption projects. However, from the beginning of the year, they do not dare to criticize" he said. He also confirmed Hanoi market had always been a shortage of supply. This unit established offices in the provinces to sell or invest in local land projects.
Dense real estate projects in the west of Hanoi capital. Photo: Giang Huy
It is forecasted that the real estate market in 2019 will mainly solve inventories given by many experts from the end of last year. In a recently published report, Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) said that after a period of strong growth, supply from new open-sale projects in the second quarter of 2019 continued to slow down. Sales for the quarter reached 5,900 units, nearly half of the previous quarter's supply, mainly coming from the next phases of existing projects.
"This is the lowest recorded level since the market recovered in 2014. Most new open-sale projects are small scale with less than 500 units," JLL said.
Savills Vietnam, Vietnam Real Estate Brokerage Association also released data showing that the first half of the year supply decreased by 30% compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, according to Savills, the total number of units sold increased by 27% year-on-year.
The lack of new supply has led many projects to stock up on the market and have a good consumption rate. A project in Dong Da still has 30 apartments after 5 years of handover, but has recently been sold by investors and has now been run out. Another project in My Dinh has been handed over for 7 years but the investor recently restructured the apartment, dividing the small area for sale. Another investor in Thanh Xuan in the past half year has solved the inventory of more than 250 apartments for nearly 3 years.
Real estate brokerage association said that the absorption rate in the second quarter reached more than 72%, up 10% compared to the first quarter. "This shows that the demand in Hanoi is still very strong. Housing prices in the quarter have The market has remained stable, no real estate bubble has appeared" said Nguyen Van Dinh, General Secretary of the Association.
Ms. Duong Thuy Dung - CBRE Research Director said that the government's review of land fund and tightening new project licenses in big cities such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City had a strong impact on the supply on the market. According to her, the last 6 months of the year, the number of new projects in Hanoi is only calculated on the fingertips.
"This year, the new scarcity will definitely continue. This situation will gradually improve but there must be a delay because of the legal preparation for a project that takes a lot of time. that it takes at least 6 months, that is, by the beginning of 2020 new goods will increase step by step", Dung said.
Regarding the market in the last 6 months, experts from CBRE stated that, customers mainly buy to stay and the demand usually increases slightly. However, while the inner districts are becoming more crowded, the supply of housing is expected to move further away from a 10-kilometer radius from the existing central area. According to her, the prices of projects can increase by 5-6%.
According to Toan, the second half of the year is expected to be equivalent to the first half of the year and concentrated in the West. In particular, the majority of projects are small-scale apartments. Given that the end-of-year real estate may be covered by gray color because of the psychology of waiting for buyers, the market of products less than 20 million VND, but Mr. Toan said that there may be "hot" locally in some projects.
"Certainly there is no selling price reduction, especially when supply is limited and year-end demand often increases. Because, to complete the new procedure now a project is very difficult, lasting many years leading to increased costs. so investors also consider product prices, "EZ General Director said, and said that reasonable projects, good progress, improved infrastructure may be hot, but volatility is only about 5-7%.
Mr. Le Ngoc Quynh, Director of Thinh Vuong Cooperative Investment Joint Stock Company (TVR), the investor of some mid-level projects, assessing the new supply in Hanoi market is very lacking in quantity. Therefore, according to him, this is a good time for new, fully legal projects. With these assessments, TVR also accelerated the pace to introduce a project to market in the end of this year. The selling price of Mr. Quynh is calculated again, the expectation is also higher than the previous estimate.
According to Nguyen Ha