If in the early months of 2019 the real estate market is stalling, the market will have many positive signals in the last 8 months.
The market leveled off
According to Mr. Nguyen Manh Ha - Vice Chairman of Vietnam Real Estate Association, the real estate market in the first quarter of 2019 tends to slow down, especially the supply of housing in two major markets, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. The total housing supply in quarter 1/2019 in Hanoi decreased by 25%, the transaction volume decreased by 28% compared to the same period in 2018. Particularly in Ho Chi Minh City, the supply of housing also decreased more sharply. The whole city has just over 3,000 products, down more than 50% over the same period in 2018.
The reason for the decline in real estate supply in these two markets is because some big projects launched a large volume of goods at the time of quarter 4/2018, especially projects of Vingroup. Besides, the delay in approving projects, as well as reducing real estate credit (real estate credit in quarter 4/2018 decreased 0.8% compared to quarter 3/2018), which also led to the drop in real estate supply.
However, according to Mr. Ha, if the two key markets of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are quite quiet, the markets of other localities have good development. Some areas show signs of hot fever at the beginning of the year such as Van Don (Quang Ninh), Bac Ninh, markets adjacent to HCMC. Notably, the real estate market which has slowed down in 2018 has recorded a new prosperity in the first months of the year. In quarter 1/2019, total supply reached nearly 2,000 products, absorption rate reached about 1,400 products.
According to data of Batdongsan.com.vn, the search for resort properties in the first quarter of the year also increased positively compared to the same period last year. Specifically, the search for condotel turns 42% growth, the resort villa is nearly 50%.
Positive signals at the end of the year
Mr. Nguyen Manh Khoi - Deputy Director of Housing and Real Estate Market Management Department, Ministry of Construction said in 2019, Vietnam continues to witness the shift of foreign investment flows. In the first quarter of 2019, there were 1.1 billion USD of FDI poured into real estate, an increase of 36% compared to the same period last year.
In addition, a series of state policies will have a strong impact on the real estate market such as the amendment of investment laws and enterprises towards reducing investment conditions and expanding special business forms; Housing law 2015 is under the direction of social housing incentives...; Circular 36 credit limits short-term and medium-term loans. The change of these policies will certainly have a strong impact on the real estate market.
In the same view, Mr. Nguyen Manh Ha said that the real estate market situation in the last 8 months of 2019 will continue to be influenced by domestic and world economic factors, especially changes in policies. Mr. Ha pointed out 6 positive factors to help the real estate market continue to grow stably, that is:
- First, the demand for residential real estate is still high, especially in big cities and new economic and administrative areas.
- Secondly, the impact of the US-China trade war created a wave of shifting production facilities to Vietnam to help the industrial real estate market increase strongly. Accordingly, housing and service facilities for workers and workers in industrial zones will have the opportunity to develop.
- Thirdly, more strictly controlled real estate credit will make the quality of real estate loans more qualified and healthier, reduce bad debts, and will stimulate other capital sources to invest in real estate such as private capital, remittances, foreign investment, real estate securities.
- Fourthly, resort real estate is still in development, especially in new markets. The benefits from resort real estate bring to localities, will promote the development of new localities.
- Fifthly, the trend of small-scale city real estate development with technical infrastructure, synchronous society, smart real estate and green real estate will be the main development trend in 2019 and the following years.
- Sixthly, real estate prices may rise slightly due to a lack of supply in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.
According to Dien dan Doanh Nghiep